Bangladesh is not going to be Sri Lanka." Explain in terms of the ongoing economic crisis in Sri Lanka.
The island nation of Sri Lanka is going through the worst economic recession in its history. The country's economy has collapsed. All civic facilities have been nearly closed. The country is also facing many difficult problems including political and administrative crisis.
According to the international media reports and economic analysts, this situation has created in Sri Lanka due to the collapse in the tourism sector, the country's main source of income, for last two years. As a result, the country is suffering a major blow. On the other hand, the country took huge foreign loans to implement various projects with a view to attracting tourists. Huge foreign loan installments have created an additional pressure. Moreover, industrial production has collapsed, export and remittance earnings have reached the bottom. Due to reduction of taxes and VAT and reduction of chemical use in agriculture, the country is facing a production deficit and some other problems.
Through the social media, opposition leaders are also raising a doubt whether Bangladesh will be like Sri Lanka. On April 2, at a pre-budget discussion organized by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Bangladesh (ICAB) and the Economic Reporters Forum (ERF), some people said: "If the investment in mega projects does not return, Bangladesh will also become Sri Lanka". Indian media also published several reports comparing Bangladesh with Sri Lanka.
However, economists said fear about Bangladesh is just like a rumor. They asked people not to listen to the rumor. They said the economies of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are different. Remittance earnings are increasing in Bangladesh, and it has a record amount of reserves. Moreover, export of 'made in Bangladesh products' to different countries of the world is increasing day by day. The global economy faced the real hardship during Covid-19 pandemic. But Bangladesh economy showed a positive trend and kept its pace on right track despite the hard times. All the indicators of the Bangladesh economy are in a positive trend. So, Bangladesh will not face such problems which are being faced by Sri Lanka. Economists said this while talking to the correspondent.
The economic nature of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Bangladesh is not at risk of defaulting on foreign loan repayments because of its cautious management of external debt which has a much higher portion of soft loan with longer maturity periods than that in Sri Lanka. The size of Bangladesh economy and volume of exports are bigger than those of Sri Lanka and Pakistan put together, while foreign currency reserves are more than double the amounts held by these two South Asian countries. There is no shortage of food production in Bangladesh. The country's staple food is not dependent on imports. The amount of remittances and export income of Bangladesh is increasing day by day. The country has a foreign exchange reserve of $44.40 billion. In contrast, Sri Lanka has a reserve of less than $2 billion. Moreover, the per capita debt of Bangladesh is $292.11 while of Sri Lanka $1,650. About the rumors or fears that are being spread over Bangladesh after the crisis emerges in Sri Lanka's economy, noted economist AB Mirza Azizul Islam told media that such fears are baseless as Bangladesh is on the right track. There is no reason for Bangladesh to be like Sri Lanka. These are certainly silly conversations, unreasonable and unrealistic.
Sri Lanka has descended into its worst financial crisis since independence for fast-depleting foreign currency reserves, caused by the dragging pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
As a result, the country can't afford to pay for imports of staple foods and fuel, leading to acute shortages and very high prices. And it has already said it would temporarily default on its foreign debts. Sri Lanka as a special case where it has a lot of foreign debts that it can't service. It is a case where the country had to use central bank reserves to service the debts and buy essential imports. As a result, the reserves are decreasing. It is a difficult balance of payment crisis. This is because the foreign debts of Bangladesh account for only 17 per cent of the country's gross domestic product, which is low in international comparison. And most of the external debts are with bilateral or multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and are concessional or carry low-interest rates. Although there has been some increase in the debt for Bangladesh, this is still at a very low level. Foreign currency reserves in Bangladesh can cover more than six months of imports, which is very solid.
But every country can learn from Sri Lanka's experience. Every country has to be careful in spending a lot more than they earn. We have to be careful how to use your foreign exchange reserves. Bangladesh should be careful about the monetary use of the reserves to finance domestic investments and to support the exchange rate.